Bitcoin rally towards $200,000 by December
The post Bitcoin rally towards $200,000 by December appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. The path of Bitcoin towards the $200,000 rally by December is attracting more and more attention thanks to a recent analysis by ElonMoney, appreciated and disseminated by the research boutique Capriole Investments. This in-depth study combines six on-chain indicators and suggests that the target is not only possible but also supported by a solid statistical and historical foundation. Key indicators for a sustainable Bitcoin rally The first parameter considered is the MVRV Z-Score, which measures how many standard deviations the market value of Bitcoin exceeds its realized value. Currently, the score hovers just above 2, a position defined by ElonMoney as “neutral zone”, well away from the red overheating threshold. Historically, cycle peaks have only arrived with values higher than 7, highlighting that the price could also double without breaking historical balances. This reading therefore indicates the absence of an imminent bubble. Another crucial lens of observation is the Energy Value Oscillator, which compares the price of Bitcoin with its theoretical value based on the network’s energy consumption. At the moment, this line of “fair value” is positioned close to $130,000, thus above the spot price. ElonMoney emphasizes that as long as the oscillator does not show a 100% premium compared to the energy value, talking about a market peak is premature. In 2021, when Bitcoin reached its previous high, the premium exceeded 100% by a wide margin, even though the price was below $70,000. Projecting the model, the fair value could reach $150,000 by October; replicating those historical premiums, the price could fluctuate between $225,000 and $300,000. The analysis of the derivatives market through the so-called Bitcoin Heater – a composition of indicators such as the perpetual swap funding, calendar spread, and options skew – provides further signals. The current reading hovers between 0.6 and 0.7. ElonMoney interprets these…
The post Bitcoin rally towards $200,000 by December appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.
The path of Bitcoin towards the $200,000 rally by December is attracting more and more attention thanks to a recent analysis by ElonMoney, appreciated and disseminated by the research boutique Capriole Investments. This in-depth study combines six on-chain indicators and suggests that the target is not only possible but also supported by a solid statistical and historical foundation. Key indicators for a sustainable Bitcoin rally The first parameter considered is the MVRV Z-Score, which measures how many standard deviations the market value of Bitcoin exceeds its realized value. Currently, the score hovers just above 2, a position defined by ElonMoney as “neutral zone”, well away from the red overheating threshold. Historically, cycle peaks have only arrived with values higher than 7, highlighting that the price could also double without breaking historical balances. This reading therefore indicates the absence of an imminent bubble. Another crucial lens of observation is the Energy Value Oscillator, which compares the price of Bitcoin with its theoretical value based on the network’s energy consumption. At the moment, this line of “fair value” is positioned close to $130,000, thus above the spot price. ElonMoney emphasizes that as long as the oscillator does not show a 100% premium compared to the energy value, talking about a market peak is premature. In 2021, when Bitcoin reached its previous high, the premium exceeded 100% by a wide margin, even though the price was below $70,000. Projecting the model, the fair value could reach $150,000 by October; replicating those historical premiums, the price could fluctuate between $225,000 and $300,000. The analysis of the derivatives market through the so-called Bitcoin Heater – a composition of indicators such as the perpetual swap funding, calendar spread, and options skew – provides further signals. The current reading hovers between 0.6 and 0.7. ElonMoney interprets these…
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