Bitcoin Traders Bet on Sub-$100K Slide: Crypto Daybook Americas
The post Bitcoin Traders Bet on Sub-$100K Slide: Crypto Daybook Americas appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise) As the crypto market reels under U.S. stagflation concerns, traders on the decentralized platform Polymarket are seeing a more than 50% chance of bitcoin (BTC) prices dropping into five figures before year-end. Shares in the Yes side of Polymarket's “Will bitcoin dip below $100K before 2026” contract traded at 55 cents, implying a 55% probability. That pricing looks justified against the backdrop of recent economic data. “With both manufacturing and services ISMs now weaker than the most bearish forecasts, the market is coming to terms with something darker: Job growth could be rolling over hard,” Stephen Innes, managing partner at SPI Asset Management, wrote in a post on FXStreet. “If you weigh these surveys together by their economic footprint, the implications are staggering — potential NFP prints dropping by over 100,000. Not just soft, but recessionary-soft. Yet the kicker? Inflation’s still sticky where it counts.” Interest-rate traders have already ramped up bets on a Fed reduction. Still, observers are divided on whether rate cuts fueled by economic weakness bode well for risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. While lower rates often make riskier assets more attractive, Wall Street appears to expect some pain, and momentum traders have shifted to selling, according to Innes. The same is true of bitcoin, with Deribit-listed short-term puts now costing more than calls, reflecting downside concerns. Even so, the options market sees a lower chance of a sub-$100K bitcoin by year-end than Polymarket. That's evident from the -0.25 delta of the December expiry $100K put. Delta refers to the sensitivity of the option's price to a change in the underlying asset and represents the probability of the option expiring in profit. The outlook for ether (ETH) seems more constructive since the SEC said staking activities and the receipt of tokens,…
The post Bitcoin Traders Bet on Sub-$100K Slide: Crypto Daybook Americas appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.
By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise) As the crypto market reels under U.S. stagflation concerns, traders on the decentralized platform Polymarket are seeing a more than 50% chance of bitcoin (BTC) prices dropping into five figures before year-end. Shares in the Yes side of Polymarket's “Will bitcoin dip below $100K before 2026” contract traded at 55 cents, implying a 55% probability. That pricing looks justified against the backdrop of recent economic data. “With both manufacturing and services ISMs now weaker than the most bearish forecasts, the market is coming to terms with something darker: Job growth could be rolling over hard,” Stephen Innes, managing partner at SPI Asset Management, wrote in a post on FXStreet. “If you weigh these surveys together by their economic footprint, the implications are staggering — potential NFP prints dropping by over 100,000. Not just soft, but recessionary-soft. Yet the kicker? Inflation’s still sticky where it counts.” Interest-rate traders have already ramped up bets on a Fed reduction. Still, observers are divided on whether rate cuts fueled by economic weakness bode well for risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. While lower rates often make riskier assets more attractive, Wall Street appears to expect some pain, and momentum traders have shifted to selling, according to Innes. The same is true of bitcoin, with Deribit-listed short-term puts now costing more than calls, reflecting downside concerns. Even so, the options market sees a lower chance of a sub-$100K bitcoin by year-end than Polymarket. That's evident from the -0.25 delta of the December expiry $100K put. Delta refers to the sensitivity of the option's price to a change in the underlying asset and represents the probability of the option expiring in profit. The outlook for ether (ETH) seems more constructive since the SEC said staking activities and the receipt of tokens,…
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