Check in on seasonality
The post Check in on seasonality appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. It’s great to be back writing the Chart Advisor again all this week! A lot has changed since my week in October, and it will be fun to continue on this journey. 1/ Seasonality One of my favorite ways to start the week is to check in on Seasonality. The chart below illustrates the S&P 500’s performance over the past 25 years, specifically during the first year of the presidential cycle, for the seven most recent US presidents. While that’s not a huge sample size, a wide range of scenarios and economic backdrops have tended to act somewhat similarly. And so far, 2025 is following this playbook remarkably well. Seasonality looks at the average movement of an index, stock, etc., on a given day over the last X number of periods. For this example, I’m looking at the last 7 years of the S&P 500 Index, but only during the first year of a US presidential term. I find that when seasonality and trend agree, good things can happen. It’s worth a look now and then. 2/ RRG – Watching the ducks going around the pond Next up is a look at how the sectors of the S&P 500 are acting relative to T-Bills using RRG (Relative Rotation Graphs) created by Julius de Kempenaer. I like to refer to this as watching the “ducks go around the pond,” as the sectors will tend to rotate in a clockwise circle around the graph. As of Friday, most sectors of the broad index have moved well into the Green (Leading) box. And that’s great! A few weeks ago, they were all clustered in the Red (Lagging) box, which is where market rallies tend to start. But now, the sectors are looking tired: the arrows are starting to point downward towards the…
The post Check in on seasonality appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.
It’s great to be back writing the Chart Advisor again all this week! A lot has changed since my week in October, and it will be fun to continue on this journey. 1/ Seasonality One of my favorite ways to start the week is to check in on Seasonality. The chart below illustrates the S&P 500’s performance over the past 25 years, specifically during the first year of the presidential cycle, for the seven most recent US presidents. While that’s not a huge sample size, a wide range of scenarios and economic backdrops have tended to act somewhat similarly. And so far, 2025 is following this playbook remarkably well. Seasonality looks at the average movement of an index, stock, etc., on a given day over the last X number of periods. For this example, I’m looking at the last 7 years of the S&P 500 Index, but only during the first year of a US presidential term. I find that when seasonality and trend agree, good things can happen. It’s worth a look now and then. 2/ RRG – Watching the ducks going around the pond Next up is a look at how the sectors of the S&P 500 are acting relative to T-Bills using RRG (Relative Rotation Graphs) created by Julius de Kempenaer. I like to refer to this as watching the “ducks go around the pond,” as the sectors will tend to rotate in a clockwise circle around the graph. As of Friday, most sectors of the broad index have moved well into the Green (Leading) box. And that’s great! A few weeks ago, they were all clustered in the Red (Lagging) box, which is where market rallies tend to start. But now, the sectors are looking tired: the arrows are starting to point downward towards the…
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