Recession Probability In the U.S. is 93% — “Historically Worrying Level”
The post Recession Probability In the U.S. is 93% — “Historically Worrying Level” appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Summary UBS warns the recession risk in the U.S. has reached 93%. However, instead of a collapse, analysts predict a “soft landing.” Cooling on the labor market, building permits drop, shrinking GDP, and consumer spending amidst the tariff policy uncertainty contribute to the high probability of recession. That’s what various experts have been saying for months. While some people got accustomed to constant recession “fear mongering,” others reacted to the UBS report by saying that the recession had already begun. Analysts from a Swiss investment bank, UBS, warn that the recession risk has elevated to 93% in the U.S. Their findings are based on May-July “hard data.” Interestingly, UBS emphasizes it doesn’t forecast a recession. Rather, it foresees the prolonged 70s-style stagflation in the near future. However, X is buzzing that the recession is already here, and experts just avoid calling it by that name. The UBS analysis The UBS analysis is based on objective figures. It doesn’t factor in survey-based and sentiment-driven data. Instead, the study is rooted in metrics like income of individuals, employment level, production and consumption figures, etc. The bank collected the data from the National Bureau of Economic Research. Market signals were not used for this study. UBS characterized recession risk levels as “elevated” and “historically worrying.” The bank stresses that metrics don’t display signs of quick collapse. Rather, it is a gradual sliding into a slow economy. The main reasons for alarm are the inverted yield curve going up sharply throughout 2025 and the growing pressure on credit markets. The credit data-based recession risk chances grew to 41% which is twice as high as in January. Despite the fact that the data is showing a high risk of recession, the bank analysts believe that America is facing a different scenario. According to UBS, the…
The post Recession Probability In the U.S. is 93% — “Historically Worrying Level” appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.
Summary UBS warns the recession risk in the U.S. has reached 93%. However, instead of a collapse, analysts predict a “soft landing.” Cooling on the labor market, building permits drop, shrinking GDP, and consumer spending amidst the tariff policy uncertainty contribute to the high probability of recession. That’s what various experts have been saying for months. While some people got accustomed to constant recession “fear mongering,” others reacted to the UBS report by saying that the recession had already begun. Analysts from a Swiss investment bank, UBS, warn that the recession risk has elevated to 93% in the U.S. Their findings are based on May-July “hard data.” Interestingly, UBS emphasizes it doesn’t forecast a recession. Rather, it foresees the prolonged 70s-style stagflation in the near future. However, X is buzzing that the recession is already here, and experts just avoid calling it by that name. The UBS analysis The UBS analysis is based on objective figures. It doesn’t factor in survey-based and sentiment-driven data. Instead, the study is rooted in metrics like income of individuals, employment level, production and consumption figures, etc. The bank collected the data from the National Bureau of Economic Research. Market signals were not used for this study. UBS characterized recession risk levels as “elevated” and “historically worrying.” The bank stresses that metrics don’t display signs of quick collapse. Rather, it is a gradual sliding into a slow economy. The main reasons for alarm are the inverted yield curve going up sharply throughout 2025 and the growing pressure on credit markets. The credit data-based recession risk chances grew to 41% which is twice as high as in January. Despite the fact that the data is showing a high risk of recession, the bank analysts believe that America is facing a different scenario. According to UBS, the…
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