Mathematically Predicting The Bitcoin & MSTR All Time Highs
The post Mathematically Predicting The Bitcoin & MSTR All Time Highs appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. With Bitcoin breaking into new all-time highs, the inevitable question emerges for every investor: how high can this bull market actually go? In this analysis, we’ll take a data-driven and mathematical approach to try to estimate potential price targets for both Bitcoin and (Micro)Strategy throughout the current cycle. Reevaluating The Pi The Pi Cycle Top Prediction chart relies on two key moving averages: the 350-day moving average multiplied by two (green line) and the 111-day moving average (orange line). Historically, when the 111-day MA crosses above the 350-day MA x 2, a cycle peak has occurred within just a few days. Despite its past accuracy, including flawless calls during prior cycles, it’s important to remain cautious. Figure 1: The Pi Cycle Top Prediction chart suggests a cycle peak in early 2027. View Live Chart At current trajectories, the indicator forecasts a cycle peak around January 17, 2027. However, for any crossover to occur, BTC would need to sustain prices well above the 350DMA*2 for months, likely at prices substantially higher than $200,000. That level of sustained price appreciation seems unlikely this cycle, although I’d love to be proven wrong! While the tool remains a valuable risk management indicator, we shouldn’t rely solely on it for timing macro tops just because of its historical accuracy. MVRV Ratio A more grounded method involves the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio. By analyzing the relationship between market price and the realized price (the average cost basis of all BTC in circulation), we can set realistic expectations. If we extrapolate a conservative cycle peak MVRV score of 2.8 using prior diminishing returns, peaks we’ve already set in this cycle in the MVRV, and the current realized price of $50,000, we arrive at a current projected Bitcoin top of around $140,000. Figure 2: Extrapolating…
The post Mathematically Predicting The Bitcoin & MSTR All Time Highs appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.
With Bitcoin breaking into new all-time highs, the inevitable question emerges for every investor: how high can this bull market actually go? In this analysis, we’ll take a data-driven and mathematical approach to try to estimate potential price targets for both Bitcoin and (Micro)Strategy throughout the current cycle. Reevaluating The Pi The Pi Cycle Top Prediction chart relies on two key moving averages: the 350-day moving average multiplied by two (green line) and the 111-day moving average (orange line). Historically, when the 111-day MA crosses above the 350-day MA x 2, a cycle peak has occurred within just a few days. Despite its past accuracy, including flawless calls during prior cycles, it’s important to remain cautious. Figure 1: The Pi Cycle Top Prediction chart suggests a cycle peak in early 2027. View Live Chart At current trajectories, the indicator forecasts a cycle peak around January 17, 2027. However, for any crossover to occur, BTC would need to sustain prices well above the 350DMA*2 for months, likely at prices substantially higher than $200,000. That level of sustained price appreciation seems unlikely this cycle, although I’d love to be proven wrong! While the tool remains a valuable risk management indicator, we shouldn’t rely solely on it for timing macro tops just because of its historical accuracy. MVRV Ratio A more grounded method involves the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio. By analyzing the relationship between market price and the realized price (the average cost basis of all BTC in circulation), we can set realistic expectations. If we extrapolate a conservative cycle peak MVRV score of 2.8 using prior diminishing returns, peaks we’ve already set in this cycle in the MVRV, and the current realized price of $50,000, we arrive at a current projected Bitcoin top of around $140,000. Figure 2: Extrapolating…
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